I was looking at the Mahalo Vlog Idol contest this morning, the finalist they have, and had some interesting thoughts revolving around what factors could go into finding the best winner for this thing… Granted I only started to check out Mahalo this morning as well, as to get a feel for what this site is all about… needless to say, it’s a great concept, and useful site. It’s no wonder they rock.

1. Personality - A good host will have a great real-life personality. This will remove the need to “train” an “actress” as a host. If someone has a horrible personality that will come through no matter how fake they are, unless they’re a well trained actress, in which case - you can get awesome results most of the time regardless - example: Nicole Kidman.
2. Appearance - On screen and off screen appearance is important when you’re the public face of awesome. Looks aren’t everything, but this is video-based media, in LA no less… Which means… Looks are almost everything. Therefore, model-type physical standards should apply (sort of): 5′9″ give or take a few inches, in-shape, well taken care of hair, clear skin, and nice teeth.
3. Communication - Does the person have the ability to listen, guide an interview, and work with whoever is on the camera with them? This is when a natural positive personality comes into play, having the ability to forget the camera is there, aside from addressing your audience, in order to hold awesome conversations will give you Barbara Walters results - minus her melodramatic bullshit and boring. As in, you’ll get natural conversation from people on camera as a result.
4. History - Is the person already established in the industry somehow? If so, how? Is this appearance socially acceptable? Chances are if the person was attached to some good causes, that’s a bonus. If the person is known for showing her boobies online, that’s a huge negative mark, regardless of how much we like boobies.

There’s one that may be “seen” as important, and really isn’t. Geek-credibility/Social network presence:

1. Subject matters - Anyone with the drive to learn can interview fellow geeks and nerds, all it takes is - review your subjects before hand, and maybe have a consultant handy for geek-coaching, and chances are if there’s too much knowledge about a topic - there will be too many assumptions given, making for bad content flow.
2. Out of the box thinking - I’ve seen time and time again when non-geeks ask some of the most awesome questions out of lack of insight. This creates great content, and drives geek people to get more into what they’re up to, keeping their assumptions at bay.
3. Broader viewer-base - If non-geeks can associate with the host, they’ll be more likely to watch. If the content is geek, geeks will watch too - the host just has to be savvy and intelligent. Hell she could be a Biologist for all we care, just make sure she’s not some bubbly idiot.
4. Social Arena - Some social interaction is a bonus, but awareness and willingness to partake is more better. Someone who isn’t branded online already would more easily be associated with Mahalo if they didn’t have a previously establish reader-base online… Granted having a blog isn’t all that bad, depending on what it is. The real magic begins when the new host can become an active blogger, create a fresh online presence, and really gets into the social scene after the new gig. This allows everyone to see the person grow online, and adds a new level of interest for those of you that like “reality” television.

It’s an interesting publicity stunt they’re pulling off though. Using Twitter, their site, and the social arena to perform an open casting call to fill some big shoes (Veronica Belmont). So hats off to them, and good luck in the decision process. I guess it’s down to the wire, and there are a handful of talented people left. I’m still looking over the contestants, and don’t really have a favorite… then again, I’m not much into these “Idol” type things.

Tony Balsamo (@tonybalsamo) got me thinking a little this morning about something I normally ignore… the housing market. In San Diego - real estate is about as topical as the weather. It’s consistently only one of two things, perfect or not so perfect. Right now, the market is pretty much doing about as not-so-perfect as you can expect when it comes to real estate - and not just in San Diego.

Before I go into why I wouldn’t buy a house if my life depended on it, check out these little bits that I found out - paraphrased:

• When the market was on the up, mortgage offices allowed/encouraged consumers to lie about their income or employment status via the power of omission or outright bs’ing.
• These dishonest lenders pretty much set the national market up to tank, but hey - it’s not really their money they’re lending, it’s their parent bank’s money - as long as the commissions are paid… what’s really the problem?
• Artificial inflation is something that happens when people get greedy. Problem is when the inflation game begins, it’s like starting musical chairs, and every quarter that goes by, fewer and fewer chairs are left for people to sit on when the music stops.
• Interest only loans. The market was so hot, people were planning on turning and burning their investments in such a short amount of time, and they had such faith in this artificial inflation, that they went in for the short term gain… precisely what real estate isn’t. Greedy consumers + greedy lenders = a wrecked global economy.
• This is just the stuff I paid attention to… it gets uglier, but I’m in this industry sort of, and would rather not like to think of it as a dishonest game too much more than I already do.

The Wreckage

Here’s how this works. Consumer talks to Mortgage Guy, Mortgage Guy gives Consumer money from Bank A, Bank A is child to Big Bank B. Big Bank B is left holding the result of greed, and let’s face it, Big Bank B is the most greedy of all… So Big Bank B sets up a series of buckets that allow Foreign Entity A and Foreign Entity B to purchase these grubby greed loans: they’re insured, they’re backed by some rating, and they stink like utter garbage. When the loans are defaulted on after the housing market crashes and burns, you have yourself Foreign Entities holding a whole lot of defaulted nothing and they’re… for lack of a better term fucked. Let’s hear it for a global economy (applause).

Foreclosures

Want to know what the consumer facing fallout looks like? Do me a favor, if you’re in San Diego. Drive through Eastlake, drive through Otay Ranch… and have a look at it. There’s an upside to foreclosures. San Diego County Sherriffs are stocking up on staff so they can cover the amount of administered evictions they need to oversee… so if you need a job, they’re probably hiring.

Why won’t I Buy? - Factors in order of importance:

1. Trust: I can’t trust the market or the lender, especially in times of desperation. The few that are still afloat, in my mind, are going to really be trying extra hard to get me to sign - but at what price? This might seem like I’m simply not educated about what happens in a lending office, or when talking to an agent, but … um… it’s (on average) over $500,000 we’re talking about here, I’m going with my gut when we’re talking that kind of scratch - sorry.
2. HOA: Where I want to live, HOA fee’s can be well above $500 a month, in fact (since I’ve asked) some are $850 a month. Granted these are in high rises, and in downtown San Diego, but… $850? a month?! I’d rather pay my barely more than that rent, save my cash and invest in something else…
3. Opportunity: If I were to take $500,000 and put it towards … something else - say a web-based company with a focus on market analysis based on user traffic that sells a product that promotes targeted marketing campaigns based on these analytics… I’d be more willing to bet on that working for an awesome long term gain, more than a house.
4. Residual costs: As a renter, which is what I’m happy to be, I don’t pay HOA, sewer, garbage, or property taxes. I don’t have to worry about buying new appliances, remodeling to maintain value, appraising my quarters, or even commit to living to one place for 5 years.

Pretty much, the market, from a renter’s point of view, is a place that can’t be trusted, tainted with greed and/or despriration. The people in it deal in lots of money that isn’t theirs, and there are far too many chefs trying to put their fingers in the pie… The pie being my wallet, which is currently not empty… mainly because I didn’t buy in the boom, and won’t during this trough.

The trough won’t end for at least 2 to 3 more years either, by the way. By then, logging companies, schools, retail locations, and almost every corner of the global economy will have been touched adversely by the effects of omission by consumers and artificial inflation by the market.

Here’s what 2 minutes of free time yields at work when I’m hungry ~ yes… this is an Email to my team mates:

I was once abducted by aliens from the planet taco. They took me into outer space in their lettuce head space ship, and filled me with salsa and cheese. When we arrived, these little blue midgets made of silly putty carried me to the king of all Taco Aliens, his name was Lord Ground Chuck. When I told them I wasn’t a taco ingredient, the blue silly putty army began to chant and bounce about, making me uneasy, and as they bounced, they left splats on the ground all around me. The aliens from the lettuce head UFO gathered around, and Lord Ground Chuck stood up from his tomato throne. It was then they laid witness to the genetic code make up of a human of Earth, as opposed to what they were expected (Pico de gallo, I think).

They all started to get angry, so I pulled out my guacamole shotgun, blew them all to hell in a hand basket, and hijacked their lettuce head UFO, escaping with my life - just barely!…

In other words, what are we doing for lunch?

I guess we’re going to Mexican for lunch.

So, I’ve got 6 minutes while I wait for this file transfer, and this thought came to mind. Real world project management.

I’ve been working on project optimization and process automation for years. Worked on a centralization dashboard for the DoD, developed a task management system for “The Job” recently, and during this time I’ve realized the scope of work direction shifts as projects go forward really fits into a neat little equation:

(Think-tank Time + Concept Design Time + Interface Design + Development Time + R&D Time + Testing Time + Revisions Time + Time for Training + Time for Deployment) x 2.5 = 90% probability of meeting your deadline. I’ve tried to determine the other factors involved in this, and why the delivery time needs to be so dynamically guestimated based on educated assumptions of the task items on the plate for a project - in other words, wtf is the deal with the x2.5? How can it be avoided?

Well, I’ve found it can only be avoided under two conditions:

1. The project is for a company that’s so bleeding edge awesome that every person involved (at the decision making level) of the project is a developer/designer, has worked extensively with developer/designers, or has a second cousin twice removed that’s a developer/designer.
2. Your project is self motivated, self created, self managed, and requires no outside input from anything or anyone, and other projects aren’t on the horizon or the plate… Oh, and it’s also something that you’ve done before, only a little different, or requires zero research.

The flip side of this, of course, is - without people that are living outside the “box” of the developer/designer world, there are chances that you’ll miss the opportunity for out of the box, left-field innovations that actually lead to newly developed awesome shit. Problem? Newly developed awesome shit takes time and effort, energy, and… TIME.

So this 2.5 factor, and 90% mark hitting ratio? Well… It makes development/design work sound a little hit & miss really. But, if you increase the time by 2.75 (barring your outside influences and dynamic project factors are minimal at best) you can hit the mark about 98% of the time.

Just something to consider. 8 hour project? So your brain says… Well that equates to about 22 hours of production/project time. Here’s the tricky part… 8 hours of actual project time is being dished out, but there is some 14 hours extra in just management/mis-management and other factors going into this. Wherever the fault lands, I still hate the fact that 99% of the time it isn’t the developer/designer’s issue, and thus the client gets slapped with a fatter bill. Making us, of course, appear to be auto-mechanics in an industry that should be a little more forgiving to those that are less understanding about what goes into things. Too bad time is money, aye?